More Earthquakes To Hit California

Future News--More Earthquakes To Hit California
Bill Tenuto
June 19, 2005

Prediction For Another Earthquake To Strike Southern California
An earthquake of about 7.0 magnitude or greater will hit Southern California soon. It probably will strike in an area delineated by a triangle drawn between Los Angeles, San Bernadino and Bakersfield. This earthquake will be felt in Los Angeles, San Bernadino and Bakersfield as well as in the smaller cities within the area of the triangle including Ontario, Pasadena, San Fernando, Palmdale, Lancaster and Mojave. Santa Barbara also will feel this earthquake.

A Geological Shift
In "Magnitude 4.9 Earthquake Shakes Southern California," I wrote:

"I am, however, concerned that more frequent and more powerful earthquakes are on their way. When I was informed of the Indian Ocean earthquake which occurred on December 26, 2004, I remarked to the people with me, 'It has started.' "

"The significance of the Indian Ocean earthquake stands out for me as a prominent marker in geological time."

An article published last month in the publication, Science, reported on the Indian Ocean earthquake, known to seismologists as the Sumatran-Andaman earthquake:

"Dramatic new data from the December 26, 2004, Sumatran-Andaman earthquake that generated deadly tsunamis show that the event created the longest fault rupture and the longest duration of faulting observed, according to three reports by an international group of seismologists published Thursday [May 19, 2005] in the journal 'Science.' "

" 'Normally, a small earthquake might last less than a second; a moderate sized earthquake might last a few seconds. This earthquake lasted between 500 and 600 seconds [between approximately eight and ten minutes],' said Charles Ammon, associate professor of geosciences at Penn State University."

"The quake, centered in the Indian Ocean, also created the biggest gash in the earth's seabed ever observed, nearly 800 miles. That's as long as a drive from Los Angeles, California, to Portland, Oregon."

" 'Globally, this earthquake was large enough to basically vibrate the whole planet as much as half an inch, or a centimeter. Everywhere we had instruments, we could see motions,' Ammon Said."

" 'I think it was a humbling experience for everyone that analyzed the earthquake,' said Thorne Lay, professor of earth sciences and director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz."

" 'There will be more earthquakes of this type, and with more humans exposed to the hazard there will be more devastating losses of life. We hope to develop technologies that can minimize that loss,' Lay said."
(Marsha Walton, "Scientists: Sumatra quake longest ever recorded," CNN.com, May 20, 2005.) http://www.cnn.com

"The shift of mass and the massive release of energy slightly altered the earth's rotation. The exact amount is yet undetermined, but theoretical models suggest the earthquake shortened the length of a day by 2.68 microseconds. It also caused the earth to minutely 'wobble' on its axis by about 2.5 cm (1 inch)..."
(Can be viewed at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake)

A New Pattern of Earthquake Frequency
I feel that when the Indian Ocean earthquake struck, we crossed a geological timeline into a different and new period of increased seismic activity. According to Thorne Lay, quoted above, "There will be more earthquakes of this type...." If the earth has in fact entered into a new period in which we possibly can expect more powerful earthquakes to occur more frequently, what does this mean for California and other areas along the San Andreas Fault?

My sense of this is that earthquakes will strike in California more frequently than has been the case up to now, and some of these earthquakes may be exceptionally powerful. These earthquakes may be coming very soon. I believe these earthquakes will strike in groups or clusters, with one coming after the next. After a cluster of earthquakes strikes, there will be a period of quiet and calm followed by another cluster of earthquakes. I believe this pattern has begun and will increase in intensity as it continues into the future, with the duration of periods of quiet and calm decreasing and the frequency and the magnitude of the earthquakes increasing.

Last fall's seismic activity near Mount Ranier and under Mt. Saint Helens (See "Earthquake Shakes Mount Ranier. Future News Predicts Devastating Eruption," Future News, November Archive, November 10, 2004.) and last December's Indian Ocean earthquake suggest the possibility that pressure from the molten magma under the earth's crust could be building up, and the earth's fault lines, including the San Andreas Fault, therefore may be under increasing stress. The Pacific Tectonic Plate now may be pushing against the North American Plate with a greater force, and the break up of the earth's crust may be accelerating all along the San Andreas Fault and related fault lines.

This would mean that a series of many earthquakes is on its way for certain locations in Northwestern Mexico as well as California. This series of earthquakes probably will strike in clusters, and these earthquakes probably will occur in places on or near a line extending approximately from the northern end of the Gulf of California, through Baja California in Mexico, then into California in the U.S. through El Centro, Palm Springs, Riverside, San Bernadino, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, San Francisco and northward.

© 2005 by William L. Tenuto