Wednesday, June 15, 2005

China Builds Up Military for Armed Conflict with U.S.

Future News--China Builds Up Military for Armed Conflict with U.S.
Bill Tenuto
June 15, 2005

In October 2003, I made the following predictions about the start of World War III and the entry of China into that war:*

"If we do not change our future through collective action, then the start of World War III is inevitable. …Armies from many Western and Middle Eastern nations will amass and confront each other. …Both sides will ultimately resort to using short-range nuclear weapons against each other's armed forces on the battlefield. …Nuclear fallout will drift outward from the Middle East. Fighting eventually will spread from the mountains to the deserts to the sea"

"The developed countries of the world will at this point insist on a cease-fire. Because of the unimaginable and unique potential for a war of untold destruction, both sides will accept a cease-fire. For a period of time, this cease-fire will hold."

"I sense, however, that this cease-fire will be broken by some event which I cannot yet decipher and can only vaguely 'see.' I feel 'guided' in a very general way to conclude that suddenly and without warning World War III will start up again, expanding and escalating into a second phase when another nation enters the conflict. For a reason or reasons as yet unknown to me, this other nation appears to be China."

"It will be helpful to re-visit at a later date the reasons why China will enter into World War III"

"When China enters the conflict, the U.S.A. will by then have over-committed too many of its troops to the fighting in the Middle East."

In 2003, when I first wrote the above predictions, China and the U.S. were forging increasingly stronger economic ties and all seemed well between the two countries. I could not at that time understand why I foresaw China involved in a war with the U.S. Now, in 2005, new facts have surfaced to explain why China would confront the U.S. and enter into World War III.

The relationship between China and the U.S. is rapidly changing. China has established new goals greatly different from the trade goals Americans are used to. China's new goals call for it to fully secure its ocean-going oil shipments from the Middle East to China while simultaneously positioning itself militarily and diplomatically to gain dominant power over the U.S. in Asia.

The balance of this article quotes reliable news sources which support that China has been working steadily to reach these goals.

In a New York Times article published on April 8, 2005, Mr. Robert Karniol, an Asian specialist at Jane's
Defense Weekly is quoted:

"Mr. Karniol said, 'The Chinese understand that if their ambition is to become the dominant power in Asia--well, who can disrupt that? The United States and Japan.' "
(Jim Yardley and Thom Shanker, "Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries," The New York Times, April 8, 2005.) www.nytimes.com

This article goes on to say:

"At a time when the American military is consumed with operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, global terrorism and the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, China is presenting a new and strategically different security concern to America, as well as Japan and Taiwan, in the western Pacific, Pentagon military officials say."

"…China's most recent military white paper also alarmed American policy makers because it mentioned the United States for the first time since 1998. It stated that the American presence in the region 'complicated security factors.' "

"…China now has a modern fleet of submarines, including new Russian-made nuclear subs that can fire missiles from a submerged position."
(Yardley and Shanker, The New York Times, April 8, 2005.) www.nytimes.com

While China and the U.S. have continued to do business with one another, China has been building up its military and has announced, as quoted in the above New York Times article, that the American presence in East Asia has "complicated security factors."

Here is more about China's military build up:

"Many Pentagon analysts believe China's military buildup is taking place faster than earlier estimates, and that China will use its power to project force and undermine U.S. and regional security."

"China is building up military forces and setting up bases along sea lanes from the Middle East to protect its power overseas and protect its oil shipments, according to a previously undisclosed report for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld."

"The internal report stated that China is adopting a 'string of pearls' strategy of bases and diplomatic ties stretching from the Middle East to southern China that includes a new naval base under construction at the Pakistani port of Gwadar."

"South China Sea: Chinese activities in the region are less about territorial claims than 'protecting or denying the transit of tankers through the South China Sea,' the report said."

" 'China…is looking to build a blue-water navy to control the sea lanes, but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the U.S. Navy, especially in the case of a conflict with Taiwan,' the report said."

"Chinese weapons for sea-lane control include new warships equipped with long-range cruise missiles, submarines and undersea mines, the report said."

"China believes the U.S. military will disrupt China's energy imports in any conflict over Taiwan, and sees the United States as an unpredictable country that violates others' sovereignty and wants to 'encircle' China, the report said."

"Eighty percent of China's oil currently passes through the Strait of Malacca, and the report states that China believes the sea area is 'controlled by the U.S. Navy.' "

"Beijing's leaders see access to oil and gas resources as vital to economic growth and fear that stalled economic growth could cause instability and ultimately the collapse of their nation of 1.3 billion people."
(Bill Gertz, "China Builds Up Strategic Sea Lanes," The Washington Times, January 18, 2005.) www.washtimes.com/national

In another article, Bill Gertz wrote:

" 'Improved Chinese capabilities threaten U.S. forces in the region,' CIA Director Porter J. Goss told a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Wednesday [February 16, 2005]."

" 'China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-armed missiles, as well as conventional capabilities for use in a regional conflict,' he said."

"Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said to the panel that China is adding numbers and more capable ballistic missiles to its arsenal to 'improve their survivability and war-fighting capabilities, enhance their coercion and deterrence value, and overcome ballistic missile defense systems.' "

"The officials' testimony shows an apparent effort to define the dangers posed by China's rising military power, which critics said have been minimized in the past, in part so as not to offend the country with markets coveted by U.S. businesses."

"Sen. Susan Collins, Maine Republican, …asked Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld…about Mr. Goss' testimony…"

"Mr. Rumsfeld said China is boosting defense spending by 'double-digit' rates and most of the build up is being carried out in secret."
(Bill Gertz, "Chinese Military Buildup Assessed As Threat To U.S.," The Washington Times, February 18, 2005.) www.washtimes.com/national
___________________________________________
(*Note: These predictions can be found on the Future News site in my article, "Nuclear War: A Futurist's View, The Bible Code, Mayan Prophecy and My Vision of World War III," which, for brevity, I call "Nuclear War." I first wrote "Nuclear War" on October 10, 2003 under the working title "Future News #36." I finalized the article and posted it here on the Future News site on December 2, 2004. Those who wish to read it can find the "Nuclear War" article by going to the Future News Home Page and opening the December 2004 archive in the left column.)

© 2005 by William L. Tenuto

1 Comments:

Anonymous Realist said...

The U.S. had better hope they don't have to fight China anywhere on land. Especially judging from the performance of the U.S. military in Iraq since March 2003. Bear in mind, China actually has air defense assets so the U.S. won't be able to call in air support against every enemy foxhole.

As it is right now, the U.S.' options even regarding Iran are shockingly limited, being in a position to use nothing at all but air power with no land forces even available, let alone a force of the size necessary to actually invade Iran and try to occupy parts of it.

Also bear in mind that China finances more of America's public and private debt than any other country including Japan and the U.K. This alone should be enough to seriously worry the U.S. high command and likely is part of an effort to increase its economic leverage over the U.S. rather than simply business. They also control the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal.

China and the U.S. are on two different escalators, China's going up and the U.S.' going down. America's days as the "world's only superpower" are fast approaching their end.

Thursday, March 29, 2007 1:54:00 AM  

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