Friday, August 19, 2005

The Economy, The Worldwide Oil Shortage And Human Evolution

Future News-The Economy, The Worldwide Oil Shortage and Human Evolution
Bill Tenuto
August 19, 2005

Perhaps because of "frothy, happy conditions back in March" and "investors believing the economy was moving at a good clip" (NBC Nightly News, April 15, 2005), there was no mention by the news media in March 2005 that the U.S. economy soon might be in trouble. Most Americans then seemed in agreement about the prospects of continued economic growth in the U.S.

Nevertheless, my view at the time suggested economic problems were coming soon, and, so on March 14, 2005 I wrote in "The U.S. Economy Headed for a Fall" (,

"The economy soon will take a downturn, inflation will rise, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates substantially and…economic conditions in the U.S. will continue to deteriorate." (1)

It has been only about five months since I wrote those predictions, and much has changed in five months.

In March 2005, the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate was 2.5%. The Fed has since raised interest rates four times. Rates are now at 3.5% and expected to go even higher by the end of the year.

Inflation also has been on the rise, primarily because the cost of oil has reached record-high prices, now hovering around $65 a barrel. The cost of oil also is expected to go even higher by the end of the year.

Under building pressures, mostly from higher energy prices, the U.S. economy is beginning to show signs of weakness, and Americans are starting to feel it. As recently reported in The New York Times:

"Inflation surged last month [July 2005], the government reported yesterday, as the long rise in energy prices finally seemed to be pinching the American economy. After absorbing the burden of oil at $40 a barrel, then at $50 a barrel and beyond, consumers have started to react as prices have risen above $60 in recent weeks." (2)

Record high prices for gasoline also are having an effect.

"Across the country, families are trying to figure out where to cut corners so they can afford gas that now averages $2.55 a gallon nationwide after posting the biggest weekly jump in at least 15 years, according to the latest government statistics."

" 'We spend much less,' said Hollie Tubbs, a 32-year-old teacher's assistant in Brooklyn. Instead of going to the movies, watching plays or dining out, she now takes walks in the park with her husband and son…. 'Everything is related to gas prices. The more you drive, the more you spend. In order to bring the budget down, we stopped driving.' " (2)

But we in the U.S. have not yet felt the full impact of increasing energy costs on our lifestyles. The effects of higher energy costs will take more time to ripple out into all sectors of the economy.

"…a spike in oil prices hurts, economists say, even if the pain does not come immediately. In the past, the full effect was not felt until a year, or even two years, after prices began rising." (2)

With this ripple effect still moving out through the economy, it is likely that an economic decline has only just begun. The effects of increasing energy costs have not yet completely taken hold.

"It was only 13 months ago that the price of a barrel of crude settled above $40. Oil, which closed yesterday at $66.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, is not likely to become cheaper anytime soon, analysts say."

"…the high cost of oil already appears to be curbing growth, translating into unusually modest gains in employment and pay."

"If history is any guide, higher prices will hurt consumption, curb the nation's output and shift spending patterns. The risks of a domino effect on the economy are real, economists say." (2)

A Worldwide Oil Shortage
When we think of oil, it may not occur to us that one day we will run out of it. Worldwide, at some point in the future, as we continually pump oil to meet an ever-increasing demand, the supply of oil will begin to dry up, one oil field at a time. When this happens, it will signal the start of a permanent, worldwide oil shortage. Increasing demand for oil immediately will outstrip the supply, and oil prices will skyrocket like never before. This would create a dangerous situation, not just for the U.S. economy, but for economic, social and political stability around the world.

According to Kenneth S. Deffeyes, formerly a geologist with Shell Oil and professor emeritus of geology at Princeton University, the time for a permanent decline in the world's supply of oil is coming sooner than we may have expected.

In his New York Times article, Deffeyes says,

"…my own independent research places the peak of world oil production late this year or early in 2006." (3)

According to Deffeyes, in late 2005 or in early 2006, world oil production will peak and then immediately begin to decline. The reason for the decline in production, he says, is that in late 2005 or in early 2006, the supply of oil worldwide will begin to decline. The world will begin to run out of oil. According to Deffeyes, late 2005 or early 2006 will mark the start of a worldwide oil shortage.

"A permanent drop in world oil production will have serious consequences. …The problem we need to face is the impending world oil shortage." (3)

A Geologist's Prediction and The Maya
Geologist Kenneth Deffeyes predicts a worldwide oil shortage starting at the end of 2005 or in early 2006.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the prophecies of the Mayan Elders also mention 2006. Carlos Barrios, a priest of the Maya, tells us the Mayan Elders have prophesied:

"…2006 is very dangerous. …in the period [from] March to November, humanity can come into a big war, in a destruction. …we can destroy ourselves." (4)

In a recent conversation I had with Carlos, I told him that I had been feeling there would be a nuclear war in the Middle East. Carlos responded to this by saying to me,

"We know this too. It is coming soon. It is about the oil."

If we combine all this information and accept it as true, then we are facing a serious problem.

What Can We Do?
The Mayan Elders have sent out a message to us for our times. They have said:

"Please return to being human. Please return to the natural order." (4)

Carlos Barrios adds:

"It is important to return to the basics of the spirit of the great traditions and work together."

"What we need to do is begin to create a unity, to create a union between humanity, between all of us."

"We are close to the next level, the final level. We need to be strong and to work completely together." (4)

I am doing what I can to alert my readers to what is happening and to help us join together to find the answers we need to turn this situation around. I think we are in danger, and I know we need to work together to find the solutions.

Although I realize there is much more to resolving the difficulties of our times than that which I may know or envision, in my view, joining in community, taking action and, together, gaining spiritual understanding is part of the solution for us. We have an opportunity now not only to prevent a horrible war, but also to evolve into a higher state.

For those who wish to read more about my vision of this, please go to "Book One, Chapter Three, 'Creating the Power.' " Click on
1.) See "The U.S. Economy Headed for a Fall," Future News, Home Page, left column, March 2005 Archive
or click on

2.) Jad Mouwad and David Leonhardt, "Economy Shows Signs of Strain From Oil Prices," The New York Times, August 17, 2005.

3.) Kenneth S. Deffeyes, "What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?," The New York Times, March 25, 2005. See also, "News Reports Confirming Predictions in Future News Article, 'U.S. Economy Headed For A Fall,' " Future News, Home Page, left column, April 2005 Archive or click on

4.) From Carlos Barrios' workshop on "Maya Divination," The Prophets Sedona, The Great Rethinking, Sedona, AZ, October 14, 2004.

© 2005 by William L. Tenuto


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